‘Fascinating, witty and perspective-shifting . . . I finished it not only better informed about a captivating branch of mathematics, but with an invigorating sense of greater purchase on the world’ OLIVER BURKEMAN

Thomas Bayes was an eighteenth-century Presbyterian minister and amateur mathematician whose obscure life belied the profound impact of his work. Fusing biography, razor-sharp science communication and intellectual history, Everything Is Predictable is a captivating tour of Bayes’ theorem and its impact on modern life. From medical testing to artificial intelligence, Tom Chivers shows how a single compelling idea can have far-reaching consequences.

Bayes’ theorem helps explain why highly accurate screening tests can lead to false positives, causing unnecessary anxiety for patients. A failure to account for it in court has put innocent people in jail. But its influence goes far beyond practical applications. A cornerstone of rational thought, Bayesian principles are used in modelling and forecasting. ‘Superforecasters’, a group of expert predictors who outperform CIA analysts, use a Bayesian approach. And many argue that Bayes’ theorem is not just a useful tool, but a description of almost everything – that it is the underlying architecture of rationality, and of the human brain.

Fusing biography, razor-sharp science communication and intellectual history, Everything Is Predictable is a captivating tour of Bayes’ theorem and its impact on modern life. From medical testing to artificial intelligence, Tom Chivers shows how a single compelling idea can have far-reaching consequences.

‘A beguiling mix of history, geology, folklore and memoir that captivated me from the first page.’ Lara Maiklem, author of Mudlarking

‘Tom Chivers brings a poet’s sensibility to this book about the hidden parts of the capital, mixing the past with the present, the known with the unknown and his personal story with social history and geology.’ Bernardine Evaristo, author of Girl, Woman, Other

What secrets lie beneath a city?

Tom Chivers follows hidden pathways, explores lost islands and uncovers the geological mysteries that burst up through the pavement and bubble to the surface of our streets. From Roman ruins to a submerged playhouse, from an abandoned Tube station to underground rivers, Chivers leads us on a journey into the depths of the city he loves.

A lyrical interrogation of a capital city, a landscape and our connection to place, London Clay celebrates urban edgelands: in-between spaces where the natural world and the metropolis collide. Through a combination of historical research, vivid reportage and personal memoir, it will transform how you see London, and cities everywhere.

‘Tom Chivers, with the forensic eye of an investigator, the soul of a poet, is an engaging presence; a guide we would do well to follow.’ Iain Sinclair, author of The Last London

Introducing you to the common mistakes that journalists make and the tricks they sometimes deploy, HOW TO READ NUMBERS is a vital guide that will help you understand when and how to trust the numbers in the news – and, just as importantly, when not to.

‘A beguiling mix of history, geology, folklore and memoir that captivated me from the first page.’ Lara Maiklem, author of Mudlarking

What secrets lie beneath a city?

Tom Chivers follows hidden pathways, explores lost islands and uncovers the geological mysteries that burst up through the pavement and bubble to the surface of our streets. From Roman ruins to a submerged playhouse, from an abandoned Tube station to underground rivers, Chivers leads us on a journey into the depths of the city he loves.

A lyrical interrogation of a capital city, a landscape and our connection to place, London Clay celebrates urban edgelands: in-between spaces where the natural world and the metropolis collide. Through a combination of historical research, vivid reportage and personal memoir, it will transform how you see London, and cities everywhere.

‘Tom Chivers, with the forensic eye of an investigator, the soul of a poet, is an engaging presence; a guide we would do well to follow.’ Iain Sinclair, author of The Last London

Every day, most of us will read or watch something in the news that is based on statistics in some way. Sometimes it’ll be obvious – ‘X people develop cancer every year’ – and sometimes less obvious – ‘How smartphones destroyed a generation’. Statistics are an immensely powerful tool for understanding the world; the best tool we have. But in the wrong hands, they can be dangerous.

This book will help you spot common mistakes and tricks that can mislead you into thinking that small numbers are big, or unimportant changes are important. It will show you how the numbers you read are made – you’ll learn about how surveys with small or biased samples can generate wrong answers, and why ice cream doesn’t cause drownings.

We are surrounded by numbers and data, and it has never been more important to separate the good from the bad, the true from the false. HOW TO READ NUMBERS is a vital guide that will help you understand when and how to trust the numbers in the news – and, just as importantly, when not to.